Modeling the deployment of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and their effects on the Australian National Electricity Market.

The development of hybrid and fully electric vehicles could deliver significant reductions of emissions from the Australian transportation sector by shifting its major energy source from internal combustion to electricity. This shift towards the the use of electricity shifts the point source emissions to one which has a lower emissions intensity. Changes in load behaviour as a result of the consumer uptake of these vehicles will have significant consequences for network and central planners for the future of Australia’s electricity supply industry. This paper investigates the effects on the security of supply of energy during these previously unseen demand patterns, while also examining changes to spot market prices and changes in emissions rates. The simulation results indicate that wholesale prices during the off-peak period will increase slowly over time with controlled charging. While uncontrolled charging increases the incidence of extreme price events and a considerable number of hours with un-served energy within the network. This increase in spot prices may have consequences for regulated retail electricity tariffs. We also discuss the implementation of possible changes to the retail tariff structure to accommodate the charging of these vehicles.Electricity Markets, Hybrid Vehicle, Transportation Economics.

Emissions Trading and the Convergence of the Australian Electricity and Transport Markets

Bottom up partial equilibrium modelling of the energy sector has tended to focus on the electricity sector given its typically large share of total emissions, the deregulation of that market in many countries and the relatively well understood technology options. In contrast, this paper employs a model of the energy sector to investigate the proportion electricity and transport may contribute given the relative cost of abatement in those sectors, for specified emission targets. A related issue is the potential convergence of the two sectors through greater uptake of electrically powered transport.Energy, Emissions trading, Electricity and transport, integrated modelling, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics,

An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia

Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) recently completed a major study investigating the value of distributed energy (DE; collectively demand management, energy efficiency and distributed generation) technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s energy sector (CSIRO, 2009). This comprehensive report covered potential economic, environmental, technical, social, policy and regulatory impacts that could result from the wide scale adoption of these technologies. In this paper we highlight the economic findings from the study. Partial Equilibrium modeling of the stationary and transport sectors found that Australia could achieve a present value welfare gain of around $130 billion when operating under a 450 ppm carbon reduction trajectory through to 2050. Modeling also suggests that reduced volatility in the spot market could decrease average prices by up to 12% in 2030 and 65% in 2050 by using local resources to better cater for an evolving supply-demand imbalance. Further modeling suggests that even a small amount of distributed generation located within a distribution network has the potential to significantly alter electricity prices by changing the merit order of dispatch in an electricity spot market. Changes to the dispatch relative to a base case can have both positive and negative effects on network losses.Distributed energy; Economic modeling; Carbon price; Electricity markets

Modeling the deployment of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and their effects on the Australian national electricity market

The development of hybrid and fully electric vehicles could deliver significant reductions of emissions from the Australian transportation sector by shifting its major energy source from internal combustion to electricity. This shift towards the the use of electricity shifts the point source emissions to one which has a lower emissions intensity. Changes in load behaviour as a result of the consumer uptake of these vehicles will have significant consequences for network and central planners for the future of Australia's electricity supply industry. This paper investigates the effects on the security of supply of energy during these previously unseen demand patterns, while also examining changes to spot market prices and changes in emissions rates. The simulation results indicate that wholesale prices during the off-peak period will increase slowly over time with controlled charging. While uncontrolled charging increases the incidence of extreme price events and a considerable number of hours with un-served energy within the network. This increase in spot prices will require further review by policy makers of regulated retail electricity tariffs. We also discuss the implementation of possible changes to the retail tariff structure to accommodate the charging of these vehicles

Emissions Trading and the Convergence of the Australian Electricity and Transport Markets

Bottom up partial equilibrium modelling of the energy sector has tended to focus on the electricity sector given its typically large share of total emissions, the deregulation of that market in many countries and the relatively well understood technology options. In contrast, this paper employs a model of the energy sector to investigate the proportion electricity and transport may contribute given the relative cost of abatement in those sectors, for specified emission targets. A related issue is the potential convergence of the two sectors through greater uptake of electrically powered transport

Job impacts of a decarbonised Australian economy

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) posits that developed countries will need to make significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to limit the chances of dangerous climate change. Numerous studies in the Australian context have examined a broad range of emission reduction targets and their impact on different sectors of the economy. The majority of these studies show that one of the biggest transformations is expected to occur in the energy sector. In regard to electricity generation, a carbon price makes renewable generation more competitive relative to coal, leading to a transition away from conventional coal-fired generation towards renewable technology. The transition has flow-on effects to other sectors of the economy such as mining. This paper uses input-output analysis to estimate direct and indirect impacts on employment for Australia from a transition towards a decarbonised economy. The results show that the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the uptake of alternative low emission technologies and the emissions reduction trajectory that is pursued in Australia and the rest of the world

An assessment of competition for biomass resources within the energy and transport sectors

Bio-energy is expected to become increasingly attractive in the future owing to its potential to contribute to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, increasing rural and regional employment and improving energy security through substituting for oil imports. The volume of sustainable biomass resources that are economically competitive but do not significantly impact on food production is expected to slowly expand as new feedstock varieties and refining pathways are developed. However, these volumes will remain limited relative to total energy and transport sector fuel demand. Limited biomass resources will be allocated to the sector that is most able to afford them. This will depend on the price of existing fossil fuel products and the relative cost of converting biomass into substitute final fuels such as bio-derived electricity, ethanol blends, biodiesel and bio-derived jet fuel. It will also depend on factors such as the availability and cost of alternative fuel and energy sources, government policies including excise rates, and the emission intensity of each sector. This paper presents a number of alternative cost curves for bio-energy resource to final energy costs and applies a partial equilibrium model of the electricity and transport sectors, called the Energy Sector Model (ESM), to determine where the limited biomass resources are likely to be allocated under various scenarios. Preliminary projections are presented for biomass uptake in each of the electricity, road and aviation sectors to 2050

Modelling least-cost technology pathways to decarbonise the New South Wales energy system by 2050

Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, consistent with the international Paris Agreement on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030–2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions